The Bitcoin dominance metric has once again surpassed the 50% mark as the anticipated 2024 halving nears, hinting at a bullish wave in the BTC price. This surge in dominance is particularly noteworthy in light of the ongoing geopolitical concerns, sparking discussions among experts about potential implications.
Notably, in May 2021, after a massive surge, Bitcoin dominance experienced a sharp decline, dipping to 40% as investors shifted their funds from Bitcoin to altcoins. Between May 2021 and November 2022, it consistently hovered in the range of 38–40%. As concerns around the stability of other digital assets rose after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin reestablished its dominance, now at a steady 51% as of October 11.
Bitcoin dominance denotes the proportion of the total digital asset market capitalization that belongs to Bitcoin. It is one of the most useful indicators that traders use to assess market conditions.
Increased Bitcoin dominance typically draws a brighter spotlight onto Bitcoin, especially during important events like the upcoming 2024 halving. As every halving event reduces the rewards for mining Bitcoin by half, it deliberately helps combat inflation.
Historical Halving Patterns and Bitcoin Dominance
Historically, the lead-up to Bitcoin’s halving event has consistently caused a surge in its dominance. As the halving unfolds, a price rally follows, pushing the dominance further higher due to positive market sentiments. However, as prices stabilize post-halving, investors often diversify their portfolios into altcoins, causing a slight dip in Bitcoin’s dominance.
The recent ascent of Bitcoin’s dominance beyond the 50% threshold reflects patterns seen in 2016 and 2020. It strongly hints at an impending bullish wave as 2024 nears.
However, Nitin Gaur, Head of Digital Asset & Technology Design at State Street, offers a different view on the upcoming Bitcoin halving. He believes that the impact of this halving may be more subdued, as it seems to be already priced in.
Notably, potential factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory include geopolitical tensions, evolving energy dynamics, and the potential reduction in mining capacity. Furthermore, the year 2024 may witness shifts in political landscapes and evolving narratives around Bitcoin-friendly regulations. Such a shift would shape the demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Gaur states:
“By the end of 2024, BTC should stabilize at the 45–50K mark due to the expected stability in global macro interest rates and the post-recessionary narrative of growth.”
Not only Gaur, but several Bitcoin enthusiasts are foreseeing the BTC price reaching new levels as the halving nears. Recently, former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes predicted a remarkable valuation of $750,000 to $1 million for bitcoin by 2026.
On a similar note, Bitcoin proponent Max Keiser is also anticipating an explosive rise in BTC valuation amid concerns about geopolitical instability and inflation. He believes that the BTC price will soar to $220,000 in the short term.
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