Today, another week of trading ends, and we want to analyze what happened on the market during this period. However, we want to start with 27 January 2018. On this day, sellers were able to update a local minimum for the last time, after which buyers organized support in the form of a trend line that was kept until November 2018. All this time, buyers relied on a trend change, but the volumes of trading each day reduced this chance. What is happening now? After a sharp fall from USD 6000 to USD 3200, the price for the past 4 months is consolidated into a triangle and the volumes are even less than a year ago, when the price also consolidated for almost a year:

Despite the attractive price, buyers behave themselves very passively. This can be seen if you analyze the two previous attacks by buyers. We think you remember how the growth from 17 December 2018 shown promise and how aggressive it looked. Compare it with the following buyers attack:

Both the volumes and the look of the candles say that each subsequent attack is more difficult for buyers. And the current growth without volumes can end as unpleasant as on 24 February:

Therefore, despite attempts to grow from buyers, we still expect a fall to the price zone of USD 3500 – USD 4500, at least in order to see if there are active buyers who are ready to keep the price when real volumes on the market will appear.

Marginal positions of buyers for the third week are closed, while the price is trying to grow:

Sellers are trying to increase their positions, especially on the weak growth without volumes:

Despite the small volumes and the systematic closing of marginal positions, the rate of fear and greed is rather high (55).

Another unpleasant fact is a weak rollback after the fall from November 2018. Buyers corrected this fall by 23.6% and are currently lagging behind.

If buyers cannot break through USD 4200 – USD 4300, then the new wave of the fall will not be weaker than in November 2018.

Looking at the current situation concerning volumes, the most positive scenario for us is a test of USD 4600.

Even after such growth, we expect a new attempt by sellers to continue falling. However, taking into consideration the nature of the fall from November 2018, there is a high probability of continuing trade within the triangle. Therefore, we expect the critical points (USD 3500 – USD 3550 and USD 4200 – USD 4300) and will make a decision only in these price zones. At such small volumes, when the daily volume reaches 10,000 BTC (once it was the volume in one hour with a bullish trend), it is very difficult to build forecasts. We continue to wish you patience and endurance not to enter into risky deals and hope that the next week will be interesting and active.

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Charts: TradingView
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