The hot weekends have given hope to many investors that the market is still alive and has a chance to see new heights in the near future. Today we will try to objectively analyze the situation on the market and identify critical points.
This week the price has grown by almost 30%, it happened on 2 April. To be as accurate as possible, the main volumes of this week were recorded during 2 hours of 2 April. The whole other movement took place in the usual small volumes:
If you continue to analyze last week under a microscope, then you can note that when you try to reach the price zone of USD 5200 – USD 5300 the volumes begin to increase:
Sellers are beginning to be active, but at the moment their strength is not enough to change the situation.
If you look at the situation on the global timeframe, then the price continues to be in the range of two trend lines:
In order to break through the price zone of USD 4200 – USD 4300, it took 4 months for buyers to form forces. And only with the 4th attempt buyers succeeded. The price zone USD 5200 – USD 5300 is a much more serious problem, in our opinion. Pay attention to how difficult it was for sellers to break through the black trend line, which buyers kept from February 2018 to November 2018:
Therefore, we believe that in an optimistic scenario, before the continuation of growth, there should be a correction that will show how many actual sellers remain in the market. It is important for buyers at such correction to keep an aggressively broken price zone of USD 4200 – USD 4300.
If you analyze the mood of buyers, then marginal positions begin to decrease. We think that in the given situation, the longer the price will be in one place, the faster the mood of buyers for the probable continuation of growth will disappear:
Sellers’ marginal positions are also at lows, but this week they are steadily trying to grow:
The current attack of buyers takes place in the black trend channel. If buyers can not break through this channel, then globally this could be a correction after the fall in November 2018:
The correction consists of three waves and it can be seen at the moment that wave c = 1.618 * a.
Therefore, under the second scenario, if buyers can not keep USD 4200 – USD 4300, the first serious problem for sellers will appear at a price of USD 3600:
That is why we are waiting for the closing of the week and see what the sellers have prepared in response to such bold actions of buyers.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.