Lightness, peace and lack of volumes. In short, this is what we can say about an important event which took place yesterday in Bitcoin market. Sellers managed to break through the critical price range of $8,300-8,500 and continue their fall. In the previous analysis, we wrote that the weekly candle closes in favor of sellers. Also we wrote that this week, we expect a fight between sellers and buyers in Bitcoin price range $8,330-8,500. However, right from the first days of the new week, sellers received no resistance and quietly passed the barrier.
On the 4-hour timeframe we see that since 17 December Bitcoin is stably selling. Yesterday, increased volume was recorded just during breaking the range $8,330-8,500:
This increased volume is not noticeable on the daily timeframe. The broken candle looks pretty confident, though it has a small pin. As you can see, after this breakdown buyers continue to be passive. Having lost an important foothold for the growth continuation, the next chance for buyers is $7,880. At about this price mark in history is visible the bottom line of consolidation, from which started the growth to $10,480.
The coolness of sellers and the inaction of buyers is astounding. At the weekly timeframe, a very unpleasant scenario for buyers, namely falling to Bitcoin price range $6,400-6,800, begins to appear:
The critical point in this scenario is $7,880. The ratio of volumes and candles also look wild on the weekly timeframe. The volumes are reduced at each subsequent weekly candle, but the length of the candles is unaffected. It may be a trap on the part of buyers, in order to engage as many sellers in the wrong position as possible before growth begins. Let’s see if there will be any struggle this week and now we will analyze the marginal positions of market participants.
Buyers’ confidence and great mood are clearly in the past. As on the chart of marginal positions since 13 November, buyers are trying to increase their positions, but extremely dubiously:
After breaking through the price range $8,330-8,500, neither buyers nor sellers responded with active increase or decrease of positions:
It suggests that the breakdown of the price zone may be wrong and market participants are waiting for a new signal.
According to the wave analysis at the price mark $8,070, sellers must face problems as there passes Fibonacci level 0.5:
Therefore, we look forward to meeting buyers and sellers in the range $7,880-8,070 and see if buyers in this price range will have the strength.
Image Courtesy: TradingView