Sellers began a new week with a pretty confident attempt to break the bottom trend line of Bitcoin price falling channel. Analyzing Bitcoin market last week, it is clear that sellers have given only one chance for buyers to counter attack. It happened on 22 November, when the price firstly tested the lower trend line of the blue channel. This test was recorded on big volumes, as buyers showed a clear interest in buying at such a price.
However, all that buyers managed to achieve is a small price rebound and a stop in consolidation:
Looking at the current volumes of candle which broke through the blue trend line, we understand that buyer interest remains high. But the number of sellers became larger and candles at the 4-hour timeframe are no longer in favor of buyers. This situation shows that sellers aggression has not decreased and buyers have no more than 2 days to return the price to the channel.
Ahead, sellers expect a liquid price zone $6,100-6,400, which can be a good foothold for buyers. In the past, we could see on the weekly timeframe that it was not easy for sellers to cope with this price zone:
Within 150 days, sellers were preparing to break through this zone. Buyers were able to handle this range fairly quickly. Let’s see if buyers are interested in keeping it in their control.
Buyers marginal positions will steadily increase in the last days during the fall of Bitcoin price:
The price approaching to the local bottom may give buyers the belief in a new trend. However, it is better to analyze whether there is enough volume left for buyers in the range $6,100-6,400 and then to make trading decisions.
Yesterday sellers actively increased their marginal positions, but already today sellers started to reduce them, fixing the profit:
According to the wave analysis, sellers managed to confidently break $7,000. It means that the next probable price stop is $6,400 (next Fibonacci level) and the probable end of the fall is at the price $5,550:
At the mark $5,550, the wave (Y) will be equal to the wave (W). Also at this mark, sellers correct buyers growth by 61.8%. Looking at the weekly timeframe and closing last week’s candle, it is a pretty realistic scenario:
Therefore, we will carefully monitor whether buyers can object to our main scenario of the fall continuation on Bitcoin market. Tomorrow, we will analyze the probability of a counterattack.
Image Courtesy: TradingView