The second day of a new week in Bitcoin market was not marked by activity. After yesterday’s emotional movement of Bitcoin price, market participants today clearly decided to relax. This was because the total trading range was just over 3%. Also, looking at volumes which are almost 4 times lower than on yesterday’s daily candle, we can say that our “fight” scenario this week has a high chance of being realized. Yesterday, sellers during the confident price fall missed a counter-attack of buyers.
The 4-hour timeframe clearly shows this situation:
Pay attention to the 4-hour candle with which sellers were trying to break through the blue falling channel and accelerate the fall of Bitcoin price. However, after the huge volume spent on breaking the trend line, the candle itself is not like the one after which the whole market clearly understands that sellers continue to dominate. It is an average candle, which was formed on the history with the help of smaller volumes.
After a false breakdown, buyers did not wait for the next signals. They raised the price aggressively enough by returning it to the blue channel. The current fall attempts look rather weak and after a few unsuccessful attempts, buyers will continue their counterattack and will stop below $7,800. Buyers should not have problems before this price mark.
Buyers marginal positions continue to increase, but each day with less confidence:
After sellers’ aggressive slump on the marginal positions chart, the last two days they are also actively closing them:
In our opinion, it is due to the fact that during the breakthrough of the blue trend line on increased volumes, sellers were actively increasing their margin positions at local lows. After a sharp price reversal, their positions in panic began to close at a loss, which is what could have been the trigger for yesterday’s price growth.
According to the wave analysis, sellers never managed to fix themselves below the level of Fibonacci 0.618:
Thus, the wave (Y) = 0.618 * (W). It means that a hypothetical correction which began on 27 June could have ended. The only problem is that sellers are still not showing strength in the market. So, let’s follow the price mark $7,150 and see if one of the parties manages to control it tomorrow.
Image Courtesy: TradingView