Consolidation above the price range $7550-7800 continues.
Locally, buyers are weakening, passing initiative to test $7800.
Bitcoin price fall is possible if buyers do not keep the mark $7000.
The new Bitcoin trading week has continued consolidation, which began on 8 January, after the test of $8442. Within 6 days, buyers and sellers are trading Bitcoin price in the narrow range 5.66% with limits $7800-8240 and the middle line $8000. The price is now trading at the upper part of this consolidation. Buyers are not allowed to fall below $8000.
Analyzing the situation on a 4-hour timeframe, the weakening of buyers initiative is noticeable:
In the first case, buyers managed to test the upper limit of consolidation with the help of two candles. In the second case, it took 3 candles, the current attack consisted of 6 candles and buyers failed to touch $8442. Considering volumes which are not yet indicative of buyers’ intentions to break this consolidation up, the probability of the test of $7800 is quite high.
Buyer margins continue to decrease during the price is at local highs:
Buyers continue to reduce their positions, worrying about losing the profit which they obtained during the accumulation of marginal positions throughout the month.
Sellers have started a passive guerrilla fight for the last 5 days. There was no significant change in the marginal positions indicator. But now is a good chance to increase the short margins. Let’s see if with Bitcoin price exit from consolidation down, sellers will become confident.
According to the wave analysis on Bitcoin market, the situation has not changed and the price will continue to drift between the two levels of Fibonacci 0.382-0.5. Those levels coincide with the limits of consolidation mentioned above. In case of breakthrough of $8440, buyers will have the next obstacle at $8700, which coincides with the upper trend line of the black channel, in which Bitcoin price has been trading for 200 days. Another situation will be waiting for buyers if they do not keep $7800:
Firstly, in this case, we will no longer consider the price zone $7550-7800 as an important one, as the price freely breaks it in two directions. Secondly, in this case, $7000 is a mark which can save buyers from updating the local low and keep the growing trend. However, as long as buyers control $7800, we do not rule out the growth to $8700 from the real scenario.
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