Buyers managed to fix above the local range $6300-6400.
After the test of $6600-6830, we expect a price reversal to $5500.
An alternative scenario is to continue growing to $7300.
Yesterday’s trading day partially changed the situation on Bitcoin market. In a day, Bitcoin price rose to the mark $6600, going the way of 12%. In the previous analysis, we wrote that we expect the price stop in the range $6300-6400, but it turned out that sellers are not strong enough to reverse the local trend from this range. Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, buyers were able to “absorb” the four previous sellers’ candles by one candle. It indicates that the initiative still belong to buyers. If you look at trading volumes, the current growth looks weakest in comparison with the previous three attempts of buyers to storm the mark $6830. This is clerly visible on a 12-hour timeframe:
So locally, the initiative is buyers, but globally, it is gradually moving to sellers. A critical point in this fight is the consolidation $6600-6830. There are a lot of liquidity and strong sellers. Therefore, if buyers will be able to reach this range, trading in Bitcoin market should significantly revived.
The daily candle closed at $6407 and its size inspire Bitcoin price to continue growing.
Unless buyers are able to significantly increase trading volumes and fix above $6830 in the next two days, our main scenario of the price fall to the range $5300-5500 remains valid.
If you look at the situation more locally, you can see on the hourly timeframe that sellers do not make any efforts to change the local trend:
Pay attention that with small volumes on the part of buyers, the local growth trend in two days has never been corrected. The maximum is short-term consolidations with the growth continuation. That’s why, a price reversal from current prices is quite unlikely.
According to the wave analysis in Bitcoin market, buyers managed to correct the previous wave of fall by 61.8%:
The probability of Bitcoin price correction up to $6250 is quite high, considering how the last 4-hour candles closed. However, after that, buyers will make another attempt to fix above $6535 and attack $6830. Therefore, we continue to follow the local trend of buyers’ growth and look for a signal of its probable completion. Our mood will change after the price will be fixed above the mark $6830. In this case, buyers have every chance to test the mark $7300.
Image Courtesy: TradingView