Sudden and spontaneous changes in life often give us new emotions and feelings of the beginning of a new era. After catching a good wave, it is important to make every effort to preserve it. Otherwise, we will be waiting for a return to our previous state and feeling frustrated with lost opportunity.
We felt something similar, seeing the sharp impulse of Bitcoin buyers on 9 September. After that, sellers gradually, step by step, continued their initiative. At the moment, on the 4-hour chart, we see that buyers did not keep the bottom trend line of the channel in which was the attack. And locally the price stopped between the price marks $9,800 and $10,300:
Buyers failed to return back to the blue channel and now it’s the sellers’ turn to try to continue their attack.
What is interesting about the daily timeframe? Sellers are lowering the price with practically no volumes. Throughout the day, the price is still in place and after an hour of activity the calm continues:
The last Bitcoin sellers attack ended with a big pin down, but this signal did not at all encourage buyers to take action.
The mood of buyers is surprisingly calm. Given the price lowering, buyers are even trying to increase their positions a bit:
Sellers behave logically and continue to increase their marginal positions, feeling confident in the market:
However, the index of marginal positions of buyers reaches the upper trend line, after that there is a high probability of positions closure.
The wave analysis shows that the price reached the first critical point, which we wrote about in the previous analysis. Also the price has tested the level of Fibonacci 0.382:
If sellers manage to keep $10,300, then we expect to continue falling to $9,140 with a possible temporary stop at $9,470.
Globally, after a successfully closed weekly candle, Bitcoin buyers have not used their chance again. Now, the previous candle looks like a complete correction before a new downward impulse:
We are waiting for the price exit of current consolidation with a big probability down. So, we stock up on nerves and patience.
Image Courtesy: TradingView