Congratulations to everyone who managed to live through August and enter a new month which promises to be intensive. During the last month, the price was trading in the range of 30%. The beginning of the month was promising when in 10 days buyers from USD 10,000 easily were able to test USD 12,300. However, for the next part of the month, Bitcoin sellers took control and eventually were able to bring the price lower than it was at the beginning of the month.
In terms of trading volumes, August was not generous enough. For example, in July volumes were almost twice as high. What do we have as a result? In almost a month, the price moved from the purple zone USD 9100-9300 to USD 12,300 (the top trend line of the falling channel, in which the price has been trading since June 2019) and turned back. As all these happened on small volumes, so the first place is the scenario of continuation of consolidation in the range of USD 9300-10,500:
In this case, the first part of September should be for the test of the purple price zone and gaining positions. The second one – the growth with the final target of USD 10,500. This scenario will emphasize its relevance during the attempt to break through USD 9100-9300 on small volumes. It will be further proof of the weakness of Bitcoin sellers and the continuation of consolidation.
The second scenario is currently an alternative for us. Under this scenario, we should expect the fall continuation to USD 8300 with a final target – USD 7300:
For this scenario, Bitcoin sellers need to take control of USD 9100-9300. In this case, this scenario will be the main one for us.
In terms of mood, market participants received a wide range of emotions throughout the month, starting from extreme greed ending with extreme fear:
As we can see, the month started confidently, but later the mood changed dramatically every day, which added volatility to the price.
The chart of buyers marginal positions is significantly different from the BTCUSD pair chart:
Pay attention that the price, after updating the local high, could go down before the end of the month lower than when it opened on 1st August. On the chart of marginal positions, we see the durability and integrity of buyers who, despite the losses, continue to keep their positions.
Bitcoin sellers look less confident, at least in terms of their marginal positions:
According to the wave analysis, sellers corrected their growth by 38.2% from December 2018:
If sellers fix below this level, the next global price stop is USD 8500, which is in line with the target of our alternative scenario. Let’s see what scenario this month works out and we will meet you tomorrow with a daily Bitcoin analysis.
Charts Courtesy: TradingView