After some price stagnation, Bitcoin buyers rested and felt their strength confidently continued their trend. They broke the lower limit of consolidation at $7,700, which withstood attacks for a month, starting from 26 September. So, our main scenario, which we wrote about at the beginning of the week, continues to work and we expect a test of $7,200.
As you can see on the 4-hour chart, the last buyers attack was not very active and buyers were unable to update the local high. The direct attack of the price zone of $8,300-8,500 was without increased volumes. It served as a signal to sellers that buyers are weak enough and during the fall they will not have any strength for resistance.
Thus, the daily timeframe shows that sellers managed to lower the price by almost 10% during the day. In this case, candle almost completely composed of the body and the pin is not significant at all:
After such a confident breakthrough and local consolidation of a black trend line, which resisting the price starting from June 2018, a price stop in the price mark seems unlikely. However, things can change drastically if we see a significant increase in volumes and activation of buyers in the price mark. So for now, we continue to expect a rebound from $7,200. Whether it will be a reversal or a correction we will analyze during the movement.
Looking at the market situation, Bitcoin buyers are in a good mood. At least, we can see it on the chart of their marginal positions. It shows that in this fall, buyers are actively increasing their positions. And they were able to regain the trend line:
Although, Bitcoin sellers have not yet managed to regain their trend line on the chart of marginal positions. They are also actively increasing their positions, which is clearer:
Concluding from the mood of the participants it turns out that during the breakdown of $7,200 down, buyers will be disappointed and start to sharply close their margins. All this will lead to an even more sharp fall, so the situation is aggravated.
The wave analysis shows that buyers were unable to form a qualitative wave (e) and stopped before Fibonacci level 0.5:
Speaking globally, at the price mark at $7,200 the fall wave, which began on 27 June 2019, will correct the growth wave by 61.8%:
This is a very serious level and a good chance for buyers to change something in the market. Therefore, we await the test of this mark and in the following analysis we will analyze the probability of the fall continuation and targets.
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