Bitcoin trading week was quite volatile from 21 to 27 October. The range of the price movement was just over 40% this week. In the previous week’s analysis, our main scenario was to continue the price fall to the USD 7200 mark. And from there we expected a rebound, but buyers decided to start an attack earlier. They caught sellers by surprise, starting to grow after the local low of USD 7333.
Thus, the price fell within 5 days and grew in less than two days. During the last sellers’ attack, in addition to the aggressive candles, there was a noticeable increase in volumes on the part of Bitcoin buyers. This is a nice fact for buyers, which means that there is an interest in buying the main crypto coin.
Although, two equally important facts cannot be ignored:
- Probably, the weekly candle will close below the price range of USD 9100-9300. We will see the candle with two big pins there and back, which tells us that neither buyers nor sellers are ready to give up:
- The emotional growth of buyers over the previous two days could not break the trend of sellers, but only tested the upper trend line of the falling channel.
Taking all these facts into account, we conclude that the fall of sellers is becoming weaker and less aggressive than the rebounds organized by buyers. It could mean a global price reversal. Signals for it will be either the fixing of the price above USD 9100-9300 and the further breaking of the upper trend line or the unsuccessful attempt of sellers to update the local low.
Analyzing the marginal positions of Bitcoin buyers, we see that the positions could not be fixed above the purple range. During this week, buyers decreased their positions, going beyond the blue trend line. In such a way they show the prospect of closing the positions in the near future:
However, the situation with sellers is even worse as they have updated the historical low. They formed a big red candle this week and closed their positions in a panic:
According to the wave analysis, sellers practically corrected the growth wave from December 2018 by 61.8%, after that a strong rebound began:
At the moment, Bitcoin buyers have corrected the wave Y, which started from 4 September by 61.8%. If buyers fail to fix above USD 9300 in the next week, then we will have another wave of fall to USD 8500. Then, we will see whether the trend of sellers is over and we are waiting for the price exit from the falling channel or we will see USD 7330 again. Have a good start of the week! Let’s meet on the daily analysis of Bitcoin tomorrow!
Charts Courtesy: TradingView