The last day of July began with a new Bitcoin buyers initiative to fix above the price zone of $9,600-9,670. In the previous analysis, we wrote about the beginning of consolidation and a shift in market forces toward Bitcoin sellers. However, this benefit was not used during the test of the consolidation bottom line and buyers are now trying to use it. Yesterday, the price broke the trend line, which sellers carefully kept from 10 July. Although it has happened on very small volumes, for today it is a great chance to get out of consolidation and continue to grow to $10,200.
Globally, the situation concerning volumes has not changed dramatically since 26 June. With the beginning of the correction after the six-month growth, trading volumes are decreasing daily. And in our opinion there are no more than 4 days before the new powerful shot of price:
Therefore, the end of consolidation is near, and we will move to the mood of buyers. If we analyze the index of fear and greed, which we have not used for a long time, we can see that the mood of Bitcoin buyers has changed significantly and almost reached the local lows.
It is interesting that in the past, at such a low index mark, the price was not higher than $4,500 and it was almost half a year ago.
Regarding the marginal positions of buyers, we see that they are trying to slowly increase them. But on a daily timeframe, it does not inspire confidence for strong growth:
Seller marginal positions have revived slightly and started to increase, but it is clearly evident on the 4-hour timeframe. On a daily timeframe, everything remains within consolidation:
According to the wave analysis, the situation is unchanged yet. There is a probability of the wave (c) ending at $9,100, in this case (c) = 0.5 * (a). As buyers are now trying to fix above the level 38.2%, the likelihood of a $10,200-10,400 test increases.
However, we do not see confident signals that would motivate us to act because of too low trading volumes. Therefore, we will not see a firm fix of the price above $9,600-9,670. The main scenario of the fall continuation to $9,100 with a possible continuation to $8,500 remains valid. Although today the chances of working out of this scenario have decreased. Let’s see tomorrow how the moon candle closes and what prospects are waiting for us next. Good luck to all!
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