Slowly but steadily. Apparently, this is Bitcoin sellers’ motto during today’s price decrease, which has been going on for the sixth day. As a result of this price movement, a clear falling channel was created. It shows that in the near future the maximum possible local low is at the price mark of USD 7740.
If we compare the current fall with the growth from 30 September, when during a day the price rose by 10%, now sellers are much more passive than buyers with their sharp exits. Because, in addition to the passive price movement, we also see small volumes, the likelihood of USD 7740 test and a price reversal with target to USD 8500 is possible. However, we are talking about a local short-term scenario in which we see that buyers look a little better than sellers (in the range of USD 7700-8500).
Although, on the daily timeframe Bitcoin buyers still have a little chance to drastically change the situation:
If you shift your focus to May-June 2019, you can see that now the price stopped in the same price zone, which a few months ago stopped buyers before the test of USD 13700. If sellers are able to fix below USD 7700 then the path of sure fall to USD 6300 will be open. Considering the passive position of buyers and previous aggression from sellers, the main scenario at the moment is the test of USD 6300. An alternative scenario – if the weakness of sellers is detected, buyers will be able to quickly test USD 9000-9100. Then we can see whether Bitcoin buyers still have a prospect to continue their trend.
If you look at the overall picture of the marginal positions of buyers, you can see that this week the activity was quite low. But the number of marginal positions slightly decreased:
Sellers close the candle on the chart of their marginal positions with a pin. It allows us to predict increase of their positions in the next week:
In yesterday’s analysis, we wrote the targets and critical points, which help us to navigate which medium-term trend we will meet with. Since, wave (Y) = wave (W), the probability a falling wave ending is high and a correction is required to continue the fall. In this case, the minimum correction may be at the price of USD 9100:
Nevertheless, even with the test of this price mark, our main scenario will remain the same. Therefore, at the moment the forecast for buyers is disappointing. Let’s see if there will be dramatic changes in the market that would make us reconsider our vision. See you tomorrow in a daily analysis of Bitcoin price!