Bitcoin Market Analysis 28 July 2019
Another week of Bitcoin trading comes to the end and it’s time to sum up and make a forecast for the next. Today, the market is recovering after yesterday’s sharp fall, where within a couple of hours sellers were able to lower the price by almost 8%. Of course, there were more powerful price movements, but if compared with previous fluctuations in prices in the narrow range of 1.5%, then it is quite a noticeable change. On the hourly timeframe it is clearly visible where buyers began to slow down the price – in the local price zone USD 9400-9440:
After four attempts to break through this price zone, sellers have stepped back. And now buyers are trying to start their own attempt, if we may say so. A local growth channel was formed which is distinguished by low volumes and weakness. The upper trend line of this channel passes near the price of USD 9600, which will be a serious problem for buyers, looking at the current nature of growth. The current growth-consolidation is more like a correction before continuation of the price fall.
At 4-hour timeframe, the situation is similar and shows us that the fall has just begun and the next target is USD 9000, as we wrote in the previous analysis:
However, the alternative scenario has the right to life. After breaking the blue trend line, Bitcoin buyers will open their way to another attempt to break USD 10200, but in this situation, it is unlikely.
Interesting fact, today, buyers are decreasing their marginal positions, although the price is trying to grow. However, the last jump to increase marginal positions buyers made during the 4th attempt to break USD 9400:
It indicates the desire of buyers to earn on rebounds and globally buyers do not believe in the growth of prices at the moment.
Sellers also close their marginal positions, especially those buyers who opened them while colliding with the price zone of USD 9400-9440. Although, positions closure is not aggressive and while sellers control USD 9600 we do not believe in the sharp panic movements of sellers:
By wave analysis, the main scenario remains valid. We expect a continuation of the fall to USD 9000. Possible stop at the price of USD 9200.
Globally, if buyers do not decide the problem with a price of USD 9600, then USD 8200-8500 is a realistic target to continue the fall. Therefore, we have a disappointing scenario for buyers. But as far as it is working we will see next week, every day correcting targets if needed. Follow our daily Bitcoin analyzes and be calm!
Charts Courtesy: TradingView