Buyers were still unable to fix above $4,000 and to try and satisfy the price zone of $4,200–4,300. Since 6 March, the price stopped at around $4,000, and all attempts to break through and fix over this price were sluggish and with small volumes. We would like to see a sure breakthrough of this price and keeping it on increased volumes to prove that buyers have the power to keep the price up and continue to grow. However, since yesterday, buyers have not particularly been trying to counteract sellers with their increasing volumes:
As far back as 8 March was a signal that buyers did not have enough strength and a desire to keep the price. After many growth candles on a 4-hour timeframe, starting from 5 March, sellers were able to lower the price by 4% with the help of one candle. It was the first signal of weakness.
The margin positions of buyers continue to close. On a daily timeframe, it is clear that now buyer positions have reached the low trend line, which runs from September 2017, and there is a high probability that we will see a rebound from this trend line:
However, sellers also do not look sufficiently confident. The positions of sellers increased all the time when the price was around $4,000. However, at the moment, the position has ceased to increase and, in our opinion, the lower the price will be, the more closed positions will happen. Sellers will fix profits from the short-term trend:
Proceeding from this, the market continues consolidation in the range of $3,770–4,000, and now we are reflected from the upper limit of consolidation and intend to test the bottom. Since this consolidation arose after a sharp fall from 24 February and buyers could not fix above $4,000 for three weeks, we continue to think that the initiative and advantage are on the side of sellers and we believe that this consolidation is more likely to go down with the first stop of $3,670–3,700 and the final $3,500–3,550.
All buyers attempts to grow can be placed in the price channel. Now sellers are trying to fix below this channel and finally break the short-term growth:
The 4-hour chart shows that after breaking through the low trend line of the channel, buyers are not particularly trying to get the price back.
According to the wave analysis, now the formation ends after the fall from 24 February (wave b). Therefore, we expect another wave of fall (wave c), which at the price of $3,550 will be equal to the wave a:
Of course, the current rollback can continue and buyers will renew movement in their channel, but by analyzing the volumes and candles of buyers, we expect the continuation of the fall with the ultimate goal of $3,500–3,550, where we will analyze probable prospects.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News