Yesterday’s daytime candle closed at the price of USD 3,673. During the day, buyers tried to break through the price zone of USD 3,700-3,735 but sellers continued to protect it reliably and buyers managed to create a big flawed breakthrough at the price of USD 3,760. Consolidation under the price zone USD 3,700-3,735 continues. This is also confirmed by the volumes which are currently small. Buyers are trying to change the situation for three days but with such volumes, they are doomed to failure.
The price continues to move in a triangle and an attempt of buyers to test USD 3,700-3735 is becoming harder and harder every time. If we pay attention to the horizontal volumes we will see that in this price zone a big volume was formed:
Therefore, at the moment we believe that sellers control the situation and there is a high probability of continuation of the fall and a test of USD 3,500-3,520 at the lower trend line of the falling channel:
Margin buyer positions are also moving in the falling channel and are now near the upper trend line:
There is an interesting situation with marginal positions of sellers. We have noted on the chart three main falls of Bitcoin price since May 2018. In all three cases, before the fall the marginal positions of sellers have always been below and sellers did not expect a continuation of the fall:
Now the situation is trying to repeat itself and the longer the price will be under the zone of USD 3,700-3,735, the stronger the continuation of the fall may be and if buyers cannot hold USD 3,500-3,520, then the last hope of buyers is USD 3,350:
In this price zone, a good volume is concentrated from which the price should at least bounce. According to the wave analysis, buyers corrected the fall on 10 January by 38.2%. This is a fairly weak correction in order to break the trend and there is a great probability of the fall continuation with the first stop at USD 3,540.
All the facts indicate that in the USD 3,500-3,540 range, there is a critical point for buyers in which it will be clear whether the increase will continue from 17 December, or sellers will try to update the minimum. Our main scenario is the continuation of growth with the first target of USD 4,700 and the ultimate goal of USD 5,400.
Meanwhile, we still have to wait to see where the price from this consolidation will resolve and whether the volumes of trade will increase.
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