During the past four days, price traded in a narrow 2% corridor between the prices of $4,040–4,120. Today, buyers have decided to try to break through this consolidation. However, this attempt was not supported by a sufficient number of volumes. This is quite clear in comparison with the attempt to break through the global triangle on 16 December:
However, sellers are in no hurry to take the initiative. If you look at the growth dynamics from 4 March, then the current consolidation looks more like a stop before a continuation of growth. Sellers do not try to sell; the volumes in the consolidation are low. However, if you compare these dynamics to the growth on 18 February, then it becomes clear that faded candles and small volumes point to the weakness of buyers and the price can collapse sharply at any moment.
If we are talking about the mood, then it’s clear from the marginal positions of the buyers that they intend to continue the growth:
Today’s positions have grown significantly but the price has remained in the consolidation corridor.
Margin positions of sellers also began to increase and today, confidently emerged from the triangle located from 8 March:
From the point of view of the wave analysis, we are now coming to the end the correctional wave, which consists of subwaves a,b,c. This wave began after the breakdown of the lower trend line of the triangle on 5 March:
Therefore, our main scenario is unchanged and we expect a fall to start at $3,950 and if buyers do not keep the trend line of the triangle, our next targets will be $3,750 and $3,500.
An alternative scenario is the breakdown of the price zone of $4,200–4,300. However, at the moment, this scenario is unlikely.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News