It is Sunday again, and it means that it’s time to do a weekly analysis of the price movement of the Bitcoin.
How does the week start? On 15 April, sellers tried to complete the growth and tested the local trend line, which is kept by buyers from 3 April. The first day after this fall was in favor of the sellers, until 16 April, the volumes did not increase by 2 times and the buyers began a new attempt to break through the price zone of USD 5200-5300:
Since 16 April, buyers are trying to break through and fix over the price zone of USD 5200-5300, but so far it looks uncertain. Also, besides the important price zone USD 5200-5300, we also see that sellers confidently keep the black trend line, which was formed on 12 April:
If you look at the daily timeframe, you can see how the price slows down. Pay attention how sharply buyers within one day managed to pick up to USD 5200-5300 and already for 5 days the price is either in this price zone or very close to it. In addition, the trading volumes are decreasing. If you compare the volumes of the buyers’ previous attempt to attack from 6 April, then the current attack takes place at smaller volumes.
If we analyze the mood of market participants, then at the end of the week the situation changed a bit. During Saturday and Sunday, buyers significantly reduced their marginal positions, although on the price chart we did not notice any abnormal movements:
It suggests that the longer the price stands still, the less buyers believe in continuation of growth.
Sellers, on the contrary. Starting from 18 April sharply began to increase their positions.
However, their positions are in consolidation and are now near the upper limit of consolidation:
Can we expect a sharp growth in case that marginal positions of sellers will sharply close? We don’t think so. If we analyze the price at which the sellers enter the position, we will see that it was in the range of USD 5250-5300. In our opinion, this is not a sufficient number of positions, which can cause strong movement, and we also see that buyers were trying to go beyond the price range of USD 5200-5300 on 19 April and sellers responded adequately.
The index of fear and greed is in a high position. Despite the weakness of the buyers. It indicates a possible strong down movement:
On wave analysis, there are two options for the development of events. To determine a more likely option, we need to see what happens in the price zone of USD 5000-5050.
The first scenario is the continuation of consolidation under the price zone of USD 5200-5300 in the form of a triangle. If buyers can hold USD 5000-5050 – then the chance of breaking and fixing over the price zone of USD 5200-5300 will significantly increase:
The second scenario is the end of the growth phase and the beginning of the fall with targets of USD 4850 and USD 4500:
The second scenario could mean the end of the global correction after the fall in November 2018 and the beginning of a new wave of fall:
We, also, want to emphasize that the weekly chart clearly shows that buyers have not yet been able to take control of the black trend line they kept during 2018, but in November, sellers could break it.
Therefore, in light of these facts, we expect at least a correction of the growth that began in December 2018 with targets indicated above. Wait for confirmation or correction of the scenario on Tuesday. We wish you productive next week!
Follow BitcoinNews.com on Twitter: @BitcoinNewsCom
Telegram Alerts from BitcoinNews.com: https://t.me/bconews
Want to advertise or get published on BitcoinNews.com? – View our Media Kit PDF here.
About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Charts Courtesy:TradingView