The last two days were slightly different than expected. Given the level of volumes and the weakness of buyers near the price zone of $5,200-5,300, it is quite natural that a correction should start:
However, on 22 April, buyers started their attack, after sellers did not want to continue to fall on 21 April, and at low volumes tried to break down $5,200-5,300:
What surprises us in this situation?
- Pay attention to the volumes in the daily timeframe. There are no large volumes on a growth too aggressive and uncorrected.
- Pay attention to the marginal positions of buyers. Even with such a decisive rise in prices, buyers do not behave themselves confidently and actively do not open positions:
- Sellers increase their marginal positions during the whole growth period:
- Today, with the growth of bitcoin, other coins either are in place or in a fall. This suggests a lack of volumes in order to whole crypto market can grow.
At the moment, the price continues to be in the blue growth channel from December 2018. Buyers are trying to accelerate growth, but in our opinion, it is an artificial growth, which occurs without much opposition from sellers and without special volumes.
According to the wave analysis, if we consider the growth from December 2018 as a correction, then buyers should not have had the power to break through $5,200-5,300. In the price of $5300 a wave c = 1.618 * a:
Therefore, if sellers do not stop growth in the current range of prices, consider this as a correction after a difficult attempt for a strong fall, and growth will continue in the range of $6,200-6,300:
However, if we take into account all the facts we counted above, we follow the fall scenario within the blue channel. However, keep an eye on the alternative scenario in the head and closely follow the top trend line of the blue channel.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy:
