What happened two days after the previous analysis? The buyers and the sellers continued to trade in small volumes. Yesterday’s daily volume was BTC 5,000. In the past, such volume could be normaly traded within an hour. The market seems to be grinding to a stop. At the moment, consolidation in the range of ISD 3,480-3,580 has been formed. Within two days, the price is traded near the bottom of the consolidation line. On a shorter timeframe, you can see that sellers do not allow buyers to fix above USD 3,500. At the moment the weakness of buyers is striking:
However, to make sure conclusions now, when trading is at very low volumes, would be unwise. In such cases, the market is easy to manipulate. Therefore, we expect a breakthrough of the critical points to confirm the likely scenario of the price movement. To work out the target in our main scenario, a break through the critical point of USD 3,480 is needed. In this case, we expect a continuation of the fall in the price zone of USD 3,230-3,330 in which sellers also confirm the lower trend line of the wedge, which was formed on 13 January:
The alternative scenario will come into effect after breaking through the price zone of USD 3,560-3,580. In this case, the fall which began on 24 December will be ended and a new wave of growth will begin.
Marginal buyers positions are systematically decreasing. This does not happen sharply and aggressively but the basic mood of buyers is clear:
Sellers also closed their margin positions:
Sellers and buyers do not believe in the perspective and have taken an expected position. This is the only smart decision at the present moment since the movement after such consolidations and stopping prices is always strong and unpredictable. Therefore, we do not advise you to make trading decisions at a time when the market is the least predictable and it is advised to expect an increase in volumes and breakthrough of critical points of USD 3,480 and USD 3,580.
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