Throughout the week, buyers actively bought bitcoin and raised the price. The local maximum this week reached USD 6,190. After that, buyers broke through the blue growth channel, in which the price was traded from December 2018, the sellers did not show any initiative and could not return the price back to the channel. Immediately after sellers tested the upper trend line of the blue channel, buyers continued their attack:
At the moment, the price has suspended its growth and is in consolidation. Since sellers do not show any interest in lowering the price and allow buyers to move upward, we expect the continuation of the grow to the price zone of USD 6,300 – USD 6,600.
If we analyze the volumes, then we noticed that during the breakdown of the blue channel they increased, but not so much to surely say that buyers are the market owners at the moment. The volumes do not differ much from those that were consolidated from 2 April:
Despite the growth throughout the week, the marginal positions of buyers are consolidated. In other words, buyers do not have a common view on future growth, so one part buys and the other part sells:
Sellers calmly react to current growth. The impression is that they are waiting for the corresponding signal in the form of a concrete price test to activate and start their game:
If we build a global forecast, then the maximum growth that we expect without a deep correction is USD 7,300. It will happen if buyers after the test of USD 6,300 – USD 6,600 will be able to hold USD 5,200 – USD 5,300. In this case, it will be a good signal for the short-term trades. After the test of USD 7,300, we expect a deep correction to USD 4,100 – USD 4,300.
If we consider that preparations for a powerful fall to USD 3,200 started back in July 2018, then the current growth corrected this wave of fall by 50% and buyers are trying to test the next level of Fibonacci 61.8%:
This is confirmed by our scenario, which we wrote above, and at the test of USD 6,300 – USD 6,600, we will closely monitor whether sellers are ready to continue to fall and whether they will be able to break through the critical points of USD 5,200 – USD 5,300 or vice versa. The bear market period has finished and a new global phase of the market is now beginning.
Therefore, we now have to wait for sellers in the price zone of USD 6,300 – USD 6,600 and what they will be able to do in the price zone of USD 5,200 – USD 5,300. We think that it will depend on the precise choice of a probable scenario. We wish you a productive week ahead and profitable trades!
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Image Courtesy: TradingView
