After an unsuccessful attempt by sellers to break through $3,765 and fix below the price zone of $3,830–3,860, buyers could drastically change the situation. We wrote about similar fears in the previous analysis, as the breakthrough of the price zone of $3,830–3,860 took place on small volumes. This is especially noticeable if compared with the volumes on 24 February, when the first attempt to break through this price zone was established:
Also, buyers managed to break through the local falling trend, which began on 28 February and now for 3 days, the price is traded below $4,000.
On the one hand, buyers have shown a desire for growth, but we do not like some facts:
- At the moment, there was no attempt to break through $4,000 in large volumes. Buyers are not trying to attack and just stopped in front of this level:
- Marginal buyers positions are not increasing. The mood of buyers looks rather passive:
- Despite the low volumes and the sluggishness of buyers, the index of fear and greed is quite high. This is often the case in potential market turning points.
- On a daily timeframe, it looks like a consolidation of at least $3,765–4,000 will continue.
In any case, the critical point from which we would take trading decisions is higher — it’s a price zone of $4,200–4,300. Sellers are already protecting this price zone four times and their volumes are increasing.
According to the wave analysis, starting from 18 December, the price movement consists of three waves. Therefore, we expect the third final wave of the fall, which should satisfy the lower trend line of the triangle, in which the price moves from 18 December:
Now buyers have a rollback after falling by 38.2%. If buyers can break through $4,000, then the next stop is $4,080, from which the fall may start:
Therefore, our forecast does not change and we continue to expect a fall in the price with the ultimate target of $3,500–3,560. We still do not like the passivity of buyers, and in the weekly analysis, we will show all the factors that make us worry.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News
