At the beginning of new week, the situation on the market has not changed dramatically. The price continues to move in the black channel, in which the range of motion is 7%. After a sharp rise in April 2nd, we did not notice an increase in volumes anymore, which would be accompanied by aggressive green candles. However, at the moment there are several facts that indicate that sellers lose their strength:

  1. A weekly candle closed with a clear signal. Sellers throughout the week had the opportunity to change the situation and create a flawed breakthrough. Though, at the moment, sellers have strength only to suspend the growth:

  1. Analyzing the marginal positions of sellers, we can conclude that sellers are frightened and not in the mood to continue the fall:

Pay attention to the red candle of 8 April. If you look at the chart of BTC/USD, then at this time there was nothing special either in terms of volumes or volatility. In fact, from 4 April, there is nothing abnormal (after attempts by sellers to change the situation on volumes):

As for the mood of buyers, marginal positions point to confidence and initiative, despite the fact that the price is actually in consolidation starting from 4 April:

If you compare the volumes of bids which were before the sharp rise on 3 April and the current volume, then now the volumes have increased.

The critical point remains at $5,300. According to the wave analysis, at this point should end the maximum possible correction, after the fall from November 2018:

Therefore, if sellers keep that price, we will consider the growth from December 2018 as a correction. In this case, we will closely monitor how buyers in the range of $4,200-4,300 will behave. However, if buyers break through $5,300, this will be considered by us as a reversal on the market followed by a serious stop of $6,500. In any case, now the “green” atmosphere in the market and even in the case of a fall, if not confirmed by sufficient volumes, market participants who did not have time to buy will be eager to enter the market. Therefore, the only way out of sellers is a sharp fall, which will destabilize the situation and change the mood on the market.

 

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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.

He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.

Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News
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