During the last two days, life of the Ethereum coin has stopped. After a sharp fall from USD 320, the price froze at a critical point of USD 260-280. In the previous analysis, we described the importance of this price zone and how long buyers sought to control it. If we look at the 4-hour timeframe, we see that sellers with each subsequent attack take less and less volume. And now the price just drifts in the 5% range:
Buyers have taken the protection position, which is still working and gaining a position in the consolidation, as they prepare for themselves a chance for a new growth attempt.
Now, the price has stopped at the bottom trend line of the new wedge. In the previous analysis, buyers were able to break the local wedge up. But after breaking through this wedge, buyers, in addition to their weakness, also met resistance in the price zone of USD 300-320. Actually, Ethereum buyers set a local high which allowed them to create a new, but global wedge.
According to marginal positions of buyers, it is clear that they look confused. From 5 July, buyers tried to increase their positions, but in 2 days closed all positions:
Sellers look a little more confident. Since the beginning of the month, their positions are gradually increasing:
In wave analysis, the new wave of fall (C) equals 0.618 * (A):
At the moment, there are two most likely scenarios:
- Consolidation in the range of USD 265-285. In this scenario, buyers will have a chance to break the upper trend line of the wedge and continue growth with the first target – USD 315 and the second – USD 345:
- Continuation of the fall to USD 230. In this case, the wave (C) will continue its way and at the price of USD 230 will be equal to the wave (A):
Depending on the nature of the fall, the lower trend line of the growth channel will be in the price of USD 230 around 26 July, in which the price is traded from December 2018. It is serious support for buyers and is probably the final falling point for Ethereum sellers.
Given that on a weekly timeframe we can only see the consolidation, all that is left to do is to wait for signals, namely breaking the critical points to select a more likely scenario. That is why we will meet next Sunday and analyze whether buyers were able to keep USD 265 and whether there is a chance to fix above USD 285.
Charts Courtesy: TradingView