Throughout the week, Ether traded in a narrow range of USD 115-120. Sellers still cannot break through this price zone. However, if we analyze the strengths and mood of the buyers, we have the impression that the breakthrough of this price zone is only a matter of time.
In the previous analysis, we wrote that we expect a breakout of the price range of USD 115-120. Our main scenario has not changed and we expect to see the breakthrough of this price zone down. A triangle has now been formed which is more likely to go down:
Sellers are constantly reducing the range of trade and pushing buyers to the price zone of USD 115-120.
Also interesting is the fact that after each false breakdown, the buyers do not start an aggressive attack, as usually happens when there is a likelihood of the price reversal:
Buyers spend all their efforts to keep the price and in our opinion, they do not have the strength to change the trend.
On a daily timetable, it is clearly visible how buyer mood has changed. The enthusiasm and effort buyers displayed to beat the price zone during 19-20 December showed aggressive candles and large volumes. Comparing this with the current situation, it is clear that the buyers are not interested in this price zone. If you analyze volumes within two months, now is the lowest in the market:
If you analyze the mood of buyers from 22 January, buyers were set to continue to grow from the price range of USD 115-120. They actively increased their positions. However, after the last attempt of growth that ended on 26 January, buyers ceased to believe in growth and actively began to close their marginal positions:
Globally, marginal customer positions are consolidated at a historic maximum. We see that there is still a prospect of continuation of positions closing:
Sellers throughout the week closed their margin positions and only now saw the prospect of the fall continuation:
According to the wave analysis, we see that the wave Y, which began on 10 January, has not yet ended and there is a probability of a continuation of the fall to the price zone of USD 100-103. The wave Y consists of three smaller waves (a, b, c), and in our opinion, the wave b is now ending up and then the last wave c should form. At a price of USD 103, the wave c = 0.618 * a.
If buyers can not keep this price zone, their last hope to growth continuation is to keep USD 85. From this price, the scenario of continuation is still possible but unlikely as yet.
The main scenario remains the same as last week, as we did not see any changes in the market to adjust our targets. Therefore, after a test of USD 100-103, we expect a continuation of growth. The critical point in this scenario is USD 135. At this price is the upper trend line of the falling channel which was formed on 6 May 2018. Breaking this price will mean that buyers have enough strength to continue to grow to USD 240.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
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