After a noticeable price slowdown in the range of USD 260-280, sellers lowered the price throughout the week and tested the bottom line of the consolidation, in which the price is already trading for 24 days. The fall began immediately from the first day of the new week, however, the closer the end of the week – volumes are decreasing and do not give much hope to sellers to break through this consolidation down and continue to fall to USD 180-190.
If you look for the truth on a smaller timeframe, it becomes obvious that the price is traded in the wedge and the range of trade is constantly narrowing:
Taking into account the volumes and statistics of the place where the price, which is traded in the wedge, usually broken on then now rebound from USD 230 is more likely to be and the continuation of the price movement within the consolidation not higher than USD 270. This scenario may not work in case of an increase in sellers volumes. In this case, we will soon see the previously mentioned USD 180-190.
If you analyze the mood of buyers, then you can see that throughout the week, buyers have reduced their positions. Particularly impressive it was 4 June:
Sellers’ marginal positions actually remained at the same place from which they started the new week. At the moment, with prices falling, sellers are actively increasing their positions. It tells about their belief in the future of the continuation of the fall:
In the wave analysis, we see that the first wave of the fall, which began after a breakdown of the price zone of USD 260-280, is now practically equal to the next wave of the fall of 2 June. However, if sellers break through USD 226, the next possible price stop will be USD 213:
Globally, the current wave of growth is 1.618 times larger than the previous one, and if sellers fix below USD 237, the next serious support of buyers at a price of USD 200.
So far, a weekly candle is closed with the prospect of a continuation of the fall, but it can only happen in increasing volumes. We hope that the next week’s price will come out of consolidation, after that we will be able to choose a more likely scenario. Meanwhile, with you, we will observe the price ping-pong on lower volumes.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
Charts Courtesy: TradingView