Bitcoin volatility is becoming strangely low again at this stage, with Saturday trading in a slightly lower range than the day before.
There was an attempt to break through above USD 8,200 but after a failure early in the day, the price has progressively come down lower and lower. The daily low still is higher than yesterday, but only marginally so, and with the price right now at USD 8,070 (5:20 pm UTC, CoinDesk), there is still every chance that the critical support at USD 8,000 will be breached.
As it is, the bearish sentiment is clear and most analysts will be expecting the price to go even farther down than now. For them, even if the weekend shows some recovery, it will only delay the eventual fall in the short term this month.
Strangely, altcoins seem to be performing quite well in this Bitcoin bear. While alt valuations against USD have been mixed, their performance against Bitcoin has been slightly more encouraging. After finding a bottom in early September, the past four weeks have seen significant BTC pair gains — as high as 32% for ETH/BTC and 27% for XRP/BTC.
Ever the Bitcoin bull, Tom Lee, Fundstrat advisor and relentless predictor, has told the Block that Bitcoin price is in fact now moving in line with the fortunes of the American stock market. Lee did admit that his opinion was likely not to gain support among Bitcoiners since Bitcoin is typically seen as a hedge against traditional market performance.
He does say that smaller, concentrated events, like that in Cyprus, would have immediate positive impacts on price, but that on a larger scale, Bitcoin price actually operates in line with macro factors. He explained:
“If I had to say Bitcoin’s a macro hedge then I would say that the evidence should mechanically show bitcoin price does best when the S&P has a bad year. Let me give you the evidence in the years when the S&P has been down since bitcoin’s inception — bitcoin has averaged a negative 19% annual return.”
He did concede however that Bitcoin average gain had been 300% in the same years that the S&P index had been well below long term average. On the other hand, he showed that when the S&P performed above expectations, this reflected even more in Bitcoin, with average gains of 1,800%.
It does go against the predictions of many crypto economists, who believe that a collapse of traditional markets and global economic crisis would be one of the catalysts that would trigger a Bitcoin maximalist Utopia. But some argue, if people are in debt, without jobs and need money, they would be spending money instead of investing it in Bitcoin.
We may only find out which scenario is true when a global economic meltdown next happens. Although if the warnings from central banks are true, that time to find out could be pretty soon.
While Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has warned that his Libra crypto project is facing a lot of hurdles, iPhone maker Apple doesn’t seem to be following in the crypto footsteps. Last month saw some rumors swirling when an Apple employee had told Forbes that the tech company was eyeing crypto, but head honcho Tim Cook has dismissed any plans to create a digital currency to rival Bitcoin and issues a warning to others hoping to do just that.
French financial publication Les Echos reported Tim as saying:
“I really think that a currency should stay in the hands of countries. I’m not comfortable with the idea of a private group setting up a competing currency… A private company shouldn’t be looking to gain power this way.”
After Facebook, a lot of other tech companies have been scrambling to get their crypto act together, but the scathing attacks from regulators — and a certain US president — seems to have scuppered the initial optimism from the lot.
It won’t stop those who have already started, however. For example, Apple’s Asian rival Samsung is already close to developing a product its new Samsung Galaxy S10 and Note10 models, which would allow crypto users to safely store their wallet private keys in the phone. Jack Dorsey, Twitter CEO, is also a Bitcoin enthusiast and has been busy handpicking crypto experts and developers to work at his own payments firm Square.
In the end, nothing will stop corporate crypto, only slow it down.
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