If there was any hope that the weekend would bring more certain trend signals for Bitcoin price, it was quickly snuffed out in an eight-hour period where Bitcoin slipped to a 24-hour low of USD 10,229 in early afternoon UTC, before rapidly posting higher prices until a daily high of USD 10,425.

It has since fluctuated in that narrow range, with price now not much different from where it left off this time yesterday, at around USD 10,300 at 10:00 am UTC (CoinDesk). Altcoins have enjoyed a mini-renaissance, with Ether finally able to breathe a few days now at above USD 180, and Litecoin now just above USD 70 in an attempt to push off bearish advances for the last few weeks.

As is to be expected, there was little news of note when traditional markets are asleep, but Forbes and others are reigniting some of the discussion around the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and its decision to introduce its own digital currency at some point in the future.

The news first surfaced on Globaltimes, in which it reported that the Chinese central bank had already submitted 74 patents all related to digital currency to the National Intellectual Property Administration. This, apparently was done to hasten the process for a legal digital currency that would look a lot like crypto.

The news was mostly a surprise for some people, given China’s stance in recent years against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This came most prominently with the initial coin offering ban in 2017, alongside a total ban on Bitcoin-yuan (CNY) trading. But other commentators would be quick to point out that there was a lot of public pressure for the state to do this, since ICOs were scamming a lot of residents, and people were losing a lot of money trading on the speculative markets. Arguably, the move to do this in 2017, preceding the crypto winter of 2018, would have prevented a lot more Chinese from losing money as most cryptocurrencies — including Bitcoin — shed between 70-95% of their values from their historic highs in late 2017.

Now, observers such as AVA Labs co-founder and chief protocol architect Kevin Sekniqi believes that the central bank is now recognizing the many benefits of crypto over conventional currencies. This recognition and acceptance of blockchain innovation, for example, is not really at odds with the ban on ICOs and Bitcoin trading, since the government never banned the use or manipulation of the underlying technology of crypto.

Seqniki explains:

“China’s foray into digitizing the yuan is a key milestone in changing how money is represented, stored, and moved. Global, sovereign level adoption of digitized assets is a testament to how transformative and impactful decentralized ledger networks have become.”

NEM Ventures co-founder and director Dave Hodgson concurs, saying that the central bank of China engaging with digital financial services will mean that Chinese people can look forward to a better user experience in the near future. He warned, however, that the proposed crypto was still centralized. Therefore, this presented the same risks of centralization as traditional currency:

“The proposed approach is still a centralized system, run by a national government. As a result, this wouldn’t be considered a decentralized cryptocurrency and in the People’s Bank of China’s words, ‘It is to protect our monetary sovereignty’ – a pseudonym for control over the currency.”

BitcoinNews.com has reported mid last year that the PBOC had released the “Blockchain Registry Open Platform“, so it really should come as no surprise that China isn’t, as many people believe, against blockchain and crypto. Earlier this year, the Bank of China (one of the country’s biggest commercial lenders) published an informational graphic for Bitcoin investment, another huge sign of approval in the eyes of many.

Meanwhile, more bullish indicators are on the cards, according to an analyst at CoinDesk, who says that the price action witnessed since January is remarkably similar to the patterns seen in 2015 when using Bitstamp data. Omkar Godbole compares the end of the bear market near USD 3,100 in mid-December 2018 and the following base-building for three months after that, to the bull resumption in April.

Godbole notes how bearish trends seemed to lose steam just before 50- and 10-week moving averages to confirm a February 2019 bearish crossover. He explains:

“Further, the new bull market began two months following the confirmation of the bearish crossover. That is hardly surprising as bearish crossovers of long duration MAs are big-time lagging indicators and often mark bear market bottoms.”

So can we expect that a new rally is also on the way with the way current patterns are forming? And is the bull market stalling in preparation for that?

One can only guess.

 

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