After yesterday’s strong weekend show, as Bitcoin price looks to attempt yet another scaling of peaks beyond USD 10,000, it can be difficult to determine who is the more disappointed in the market. Bears who have been unable to force Bitcoin below the five digit US dollar valuations for weeks? Or bulls who have been struggling to keep near the 2019 highs of close to USD 13,000?

Perhaps it matters less about who is more disappointed, since short term scalpers and speculators will consider themselves the big winners in the last two months. It is interesting to note that since June, if you had bought in every time below USD 10,000 and sold only for 10% gains at USD 11,000, and repeated this every dip, you would have almost tripled your bankroll by now. And, judging from some of the chatter in online channels, many traders have done exactly this, so will be hoping the trend continues for many more weeks and months.

First, let us get the underwhelming breaking news of the day out of the way: the latest Satoshi Nakamoto reveal has fallen flat on its face. But is this surprising to us? As we mentioned yesterday, this was likely to be another hoax in a long line of pretenders, and judging from the reaction online, it would appear that most of the cryptosphere agrees.

In yesterday’s first part of the “reveal”, the purported claimant rambled on about the birth of Bitcoin, sounding more like a teenager with angst to spare than an intelligent coder with something that would change the world. Here’s a sample demonstrating just that:

“I was adamant that I would create history and I did. However, somewhere down the road I lost it. I forgot who I was and my fight wasn’t with anyone or anything else but with myself. I’m coming back now, not to prove anything to anyone else, but to prove something to myself. No one can defeat you unless you defeat yourself. Period!”

As Charlie Lee, Litecoin founder and long-time Bitcoin advocate puts it:

Nevertheless, we should appreciate the time and effort someone out there took to provide us with some minor entertainment. The effect, however, on the Bitcoin market does seem to be negligible.

What observers will be looking for this week is another strong movement, at volume, to provide confirmation of a new trendline. What is more likely to happen, given the pattern of current weeks, is that we are going to see even narrower trading zones. Consolidation theorists will be preparing their “I told you so” posts, but it’s still too early to establish any winners in this climate of low volatility and relatively low trading volumes.

Altcoin traders are probably the worst off, though! If Bitcoin can still boast of a price more than 3 times its 2019 low, one major altcoin are actually plumbing new depths. Ripple (XRP) leads the pack of crypto losers by far, in the last 24 hours touching a new low for 2019 of USD 0.267 — in fact a price not seen since late 2017.

Others in the top 10 aren’t doing so well either. Ether is barely retaking USD 200 right now, while privacy coins Dash and Monero are many bridges too far from USD 100.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides little motivation, with lower lows forming the patterns for August with several failures by Bitcoin to escape from oversold territory. Today’s shallow recovery must be continued over the next week, and it will largely depend on momentum from today’s traders in Europe, and later, North America.

ING bitcoin

Source: ING, Yahoo Finance

News-wise, Austrian ING Bank is looking to put the dampener on enthusiasm in Europe, with its latest survey titled “Bitcoin has few friends in Austria”. According to its research, outside of East Europe and Turkey, crypto sentiment was on the downturn in the 15 major economies it surveyed, with Austria having the most crypto skeptics, where only 13% of the population surveyed held positive opinions about Bitcoin. An ING expert commented:

“The ING International Survey shows very clearly what the Austrians value–namely security in payment transactions and investment. Risk or strong price fluctuations want to be avoided as much as possible. So it is not surprising that crypto money does not find fertile ground in this country.”

Strong words from a country that is one of the most Bitcoin accessible in the world, whose national post also recently issued a first-of-its-kind crypto stamp, where bills and public transport tickets are all payable by Bitcoin!

But as those who have been in crypto long enough know, Bitcoin interest comes in cycles, and bank surveys would do well to serve their own interests. Surely trading volume in Austria, which according to Localbitcoins has not abated, would be a more objective and practical evidence of actual Bitcoin interest?

 

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