Ethereum price continues to consolidate over the price range $138-143.
If the fall will continue, the final target of sellers is $116.
A slight price rebound after the fall from 18 November by 38.2% slightly increases the probability of the price fall continuation.
Yesterday’s trading day on Ethereum market ended with another unsuccessful attempt by sellers to fix below $143. Ethereum price since 25 November continues to move within the triangle, which is constantly limiting the range of price movement and creating more intrigue. The formation of such a triangle is caused by a sharp price fall from 18 November. Considering the weakness of Ethereum price rebound after the first storm of the price range $138-145, we can conclude that buyers do not yet have enough strength to change the market globally.
Therefore, the probability of continuing to fall and break the consolidation down is quite possible. To forecast the movement of the price until it is in consolidation is thankless task, since the probability at best is 60-40. Therefore, we are waiting for a clear signal, namely the fixing of the price below the purple zone. Then the scenario of continuing the fall to $116 will become the main one.
Looking at the alternative scenario, we see that during the triangle break up, the critical point for buyers is at $161, where the black trend line of the global wedge now passes. Only after breaking this mark and the trend line we can talk about the global change of the trend.
Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe, we noticed that it is not easy for buyers to form their local trend:
Pay attention to the efforts which buyers make in the form of volumes and how candles are closed in the long run. It confirms the opinion that there are still a lot of sellers on the market. So they will not allow to organize a sharp price growth.
On the chart of buyers’ marginal positions an intriguing consolidation has been for a week:
Buyers have no common mood and expectation.
Sellers, despite their dominance in the market, continue to reduce their marginal positions, while being at historical lows:
Wave analysis shows that wave (e) is now beginning to form, after which it becomes clear which scenario will be the main one for us. After correcting the fall wave from 18 November by 38.2%, buyers showed weakness. And during the breakdown of the current consolidation downwards, the fall will be as fast as the previous one.
Let’s see if buyers can make a difference and test $161 by the end of the week. Meet you on Sunday in a weekly analysis of Ethereum price.
Image Courtesy: TradingView