Yesterday’s and today’s daily candles showed a total increase of Ethereum prices by 4%. Following the breakdown of the triangular lower trend line on 15 November and the lower consolidation limit test USD 180, buyers decided to try to continue movement in the range of USD 180-200. The test of the price mark USD 180 was on increased volumes, relatively to the last few days.
However, these volumes are not enough to break the bottom line of consolidation. At the 4-hour timeframe, we see three attempts by market participants over the past month to turn the situation from consolidation into a trend movement:
As we can see, in all cases the volumes were increased, but in insufficient quantities. The current attempt is the same in terms of volumes compared to the candles on 8 and 10 November, so the probability of continuation of the Ethereum price movement within consolidation is quite high.
Buyers are now testing the trend line of sellers. If they are unable to fix above USD 188, sellers will continue to fall and try to update the local low. In fact, sellers have not yet allowed changing their local trend, which began on 6 November. So, only after fixing over USD 188 we can consider the scenario of the test of USD 200. However, buyers have not yet been able to seize the initiative.
Marginal positions of buyers have negative dynamics and in recent days they have closed their positions:
The situation continues to be tense and with a sharp Ethereum price downward movement, buyers can help sellers to accelerate the fall. It is due to a rather high level of marginal positions. This fact should make Ethereum investors anxious and more vigilant.
Sellers continue to build a passive growth channel of marginal positions:
According to the wave analysis locally, the wave of fall from 6 November will be over if buyers are fixed above the level of Fibonacci 0.382:
As we can see, the current wave of fall (c) at a price of USD 177 is equal to wave (a). Therefore, on Tuesday we will see whether buyers will be able to break this wave of fall. Or sellers still will continue their fall to the price mark USD 155. Have a good start of the new working week!