An unsuccessful growth attempt of buyers prevented Ethereum price from moving beyond the consolidational limits on 18 December.
Sellers need less effort to lower the price than buyers to raise it.
The fall wave (C) is not over and sellers are trying to repeat the test of $116.
Yesterday, Ethereum price movement ended with a test of $132 and a big daily pin up. Growth in Ethereum market was about 7%. But the closing price was higher than the daily candle opening price by only 0.7%. Looking at the daily timeframe, yesterday buyers managed to test the upper limit of consolidation, in which the price is moving since 18 December. Exactly this limit does not allow buyers to even touch the critical price range $138-145, over which buyers lost control on 16 December.
Yesterday’s candle shows us that it is now sellers’ turn to try to exit of current consolidation and try to fix below $122 with target to test $115. Similar to the situation with Bitcoin, volumes during the growth are drastically different from volumes during the fall. The 4-hour timeframe clearly shows that the two candles on increased volumes are no different from the two candles of sellers, with minimal volumes:
It shows the lack of efforts of buyers and the large number of sellers who with limit orders restrain the price. However, buyers do not try to keep the price from falling. That’s why it is so easy for sellers to neutralize buyers’ attacks without volume.
Analyzing buyers’ marginal positions, their yesterday’s attempt to grow provoked the closure of marginal positions:
Buyers are trying to reduce their marginal positions while the price is in consolidation to connect during the trend.
The situation on the chart of sellers’ marginal positions looks more painful:
Buyers were actively reducing their marginal positions yesterday and left the channel today, accelerating the trend of the fall.
The wave analysis seems to indicate that wave (C) has not yet completed its formation:
Sellers are trying fix below the level of Fibonacci 0.5 for repeated local low test and at the mark $116. As we can see, yesterday’s growth is not reflected in the weekly timeframe. Let’s see if sellers will use their advantage and let’s analyze the chances of buyers to at least test the price range $138-145.
Image Courtesy: TradingView