Ethereum trading week, which began on 4 November, is coming to an end. Today, we will analyze whether the global market situation has changed and what should we expect next week.
A week started with a price mark of USD 182. Buyers were aggressively trying to impose their game and on Monday, the price for one Ethereum rose by almost 5%. However, each successive daily candle looked worse in both the range of movement and volume. A daily candle, on 6 November, the body of which is less than a pin, made it clear that sellers are not ready to give the initiative so easily.
Therefore, exactly half a week the steering wheel was in buyers’ hands. And on Wednesday, at the end of the day, a local initiative went to the sellers. Thus, in a large consolidation with the limits, USD 155-200 formed a local one with the limits USD 180-191.
What can we say about this consolidation:
1) Buyer attack on 4 November looks weaker than the attack on 29 October:
Although buyers are trying to keep the local trend line and not lower the price below. However, in October buyers needed one day to test USD 191 and now three days.
2) Trading volumes remain the same, though, it is increasingly difficult for buyers to organize counter-attacks. It suggests that the number of sellers is increasing and the continuation of the fall and the test of USD 155 is a matter of time.
The situation with buyers’ marginal positions remains tense and makes it clear that as the price falls, Ethereum can fall sharply with a panic decrease of buyers’ marginal positions:
Nevertheless, we did not notice any particular changes in the mood of sellers on the marginal positions chart. Sellers continue to behave uncertainly and do not increase their margins, waiting for the price to come out of consolidation:
Analyzing the weekly timeframe, buyers have been trying to fix above the price of USD 200 for 6 weeks, but so far they failed. Each weekly candle has a good pin-up which says that there are still enough sellers on the market and they control the situation:
According to wave analysis, the situation remains unchanged. Buyers can not fix above Fibonacci level 0.618:
Therefore, our main scenario of the USD 155 test with a possible continued fall to USD 143 remains valid. It is likely that sellers will try to implement this scenario next week. And on Tuesday we will see if there will be the first results by sellers. Have a good start of the week!