Buyers lacked two dollars to test the price mark USD 200. However, to try the upper trend line of the black wedge, Ethereum buyers had enough forces. Starting their attack from 25 September, buyers showed little aggression in both candles and volumes. If you compare the volumes of all this growth, you can see that the volumes are not different from the previous ones, starting from 22 July. It indicates a continuation of consolidation and the unwillingness of market participants to release the price from the wedge.
We see on the blue trend line, which buyers are still in control of, that their local attack is not over yet. We can expect the test of USD 200 again. The critical point for Ethereum buyers will be the price range of USD 175-180. When sellers will fix below this price range, a falling wave will begin, with targets USD 155-160 and a possible final target USD 137:
The 4-hour timeframe also shows that buyers are not going to take the initiative yet. Now, sellers are trying to fix below USD 186 – the upper limit of consolidation, in which the price was trading from 25 September to 8 October. Therefore, in our opinion, the test of USD 175 is inevitable. We will see the reaction of buyers in this price mark and then can predict whether there is a chance of another attempt at the USD 200 test.
Generally, the weekly timeframe shows that within two weeks buyers are trying to impose their game. But sellers, making up pins, make it clear that they are not ready to give their initiative, at least with the following volumes:
After a sharp increase in marginal positions of buyers on 9 October, their enthusiasm has subsided a bit and the increase in positions has stopped:
Ethereum sellers again failed to break out of global consolidation. Testing the upper limit, sellers’ marginal positions began to decrease steadily:
According to the wave analysis, the current growth, which has stopped at the price mark USD 198, corrected the falling wave (a) by 61.8%:
So far, the probability of the fall continuation is much higher than the continuation of growth, given the wave structure. As we can see, we need one more wave of fall to end the wave model. Considering a sufficiently deep correction of the previous fall wave, the probable target of the wave (c) is at the price mark USD 155:
We expect a test of USD 175 and on Monday we do a weekly analysis and determine the scenario for the week. Have a good weekend!
Charts Courtesy: TradingView