A few days have passed calmly since our past Ethereum analysis. As we can see on the daily timeframe, the price started to slow down, volumes are falling and all this is happening near the lower trend line of the black wedge. Starting from 17 July, each subsequent local minimum becomes less dangerous and sharp. The situation looks like a gradual decline in the falling trend.
However, we think that without a price range test of USD 155-160, a strong trend of buyers’ movement will not begin. The fact is that, practically the whole fall period, starting from 10 July, is on small volumes. Since 6 August, volumes have fallen completely. We believe that the USD 155-160 price range should be of interest to active buyers who can wipe out the melancholy fall, get out of the black wedge, and start a new wave of growth. Although, are there such buyers in this price range? A little patience, and we will find out.
At the 4-hour timeframe, we see a price stop at USD 168 and several breakdowns which occurred on small volumes:
If these false breakdowns were on increased volumes, the chances of a price rebound to USD 185 would be greater. And so this phenomenon can be interpreted differently. Ethereum buyers banally do not have the power to keep the price with the help of limit orders. That is, we do not see the big buyers who are ready to keep the price. Everything happens, thanks to small buyers.
Also after false breakdowns, often starts a counter-attack that we do not notice in our situation. Nevertheless, in consolidation, it is important not to guess the side but to support the stronger one. So a little patience and we’ll see if a rebound to USD 185 is possible or sellers will break the black wedge down.
With regard to marginal positions, buyers behave as restrained as possible, without showing their mood and leaving the index of marginal positions in consolidation:
Sellers are trying to increase their positions yesterday and today are in a better mood unlike Bitcoin sellers:
According to wave analysis, we have two scenarios which talk about the continuation of the fall, but with different targets:
The first scenario is the continuation of the movement in the black triangle with a final target of USD 155 (50% Fibonacci level). In this case, we should expect another USD 185 test and then the last wave of fall.
The second scenario, with a target of USD 135, will work if Ethereum sellers break the black trendline of the wedge during the current attack. In this case, the logical end of the wave (Y) will be at the 61.8%level of Fibonacci.
Meet you on Monday and summarize for the month!