• John McAfee’s price prediction and bet that Bitcoin would USD 1 million by the end of 2020 looks like it will miss by a long shot

As the major Bitcoin bull run of 2017 began to brew in July, John McAfee bet that Bitcoin would continue upwards to USD 500,000 by the end of 2020, or he would eat his private parts live on national television. On 29 November, as Bitcoin surged through the USD 10,000 level, McAfee doubled down on the bet, saying Bitcoin would hit USD 1 million by the end of 2020.

It is unclear why McAfee doubled down on the bet, since doing so made it less likely that he would win the bet. In any case, McAfee made the bet before the launch of the first Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and failed to foresee that those would introduce significant short-selling pressure into the market. The pressure from Bitcoin futures helps to prevent Bitcoin bubbles from hyperinflating, leading to a more stable Bitcoin price with lower price peaks long term.

Perhaps if Bitcoin futures were never launched then McAfee would have a fighting chance at winning this bet, but at this point, the price of Bitcoin is only 0.7% of the way towards his prediction, or equivalently Bitcoin would have to rise 14,200% during 2020 for him to win the bet.

The price of Bitcoin has actually gone in the opposite direction, dropping approximately USD 3,000 since McAfee made the bet.

It remains to be seen if McAfee will follow through with his promise at the end of 2020. For the sake of mental health worldwide hopefully, he reneges on the bet.


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