The Lindy Effect states that the life expectancy of a non-living thing is proportional to its current age. Therefore, according to the Lindy Effect, Bitcoin will survive long term.

In more scientific terms, time is tied to disorder and entropy. Entropy causes every physical thing in the universe to slowly decay into disorder. When it comes to Bitcoin, there are many events that cause disorder for Bitcoin and have the potential to damage Bitcoin, such as exchanges getting hacked, increasing government regulations, fights in the community, and errors in code. The fact that Bitcoin has survived persistent and continuous threats for nine years now makes it clear Bitcoin is anti-fragile, robust and likely to continue surviving. This is the Lindy Effect – the longer something survives, the more likely it is to keep surviving since it has already proven itself.

Another way to look at it is that Bitcoin has plenty of entropy, and there is plenty of friction from outside forces that can wear it down. However, the factors that are making Bitcoin grow are inputting more energy into Bitcoin than the energy it is losing from negative factors. For example, demand is increasing worldwide due to it being the number one cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is decentralized, cryptographically secure, instant, and has low fees, making it better than fiat, so demand is rapidly increasing long term. Simultaneously, its infrastructure is rapidly proliferating, making it an even stronger currency.

These positive factors far exceed the damage caused by hackers, fighting, regulations, and manipulation, so Bitcoin is not only surviving, it is growing. The Lindy Effect shows that Bitcoin will be around for many more years, probably our entire lifetimes, because it is robust in the face of destructive influences.

 

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