Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has gone into positive territory for Bitcoin for the first time since January 2018. This can be seen on Bitcoinwisdsom when viewing Bitfinex data with a 1-week interval, in the settings menu. MACD first turned positive on 26 August 2018, generally taken to mean a rally may be imminent.
In Bitcoin’s recent history, during the past couple of years, when MACD turns positive it usually becomes increasingly positive for many months and peaks when Bitcoin’s price peaks. It begins to decline after Bitcoin’s price peaks, and then it goes negative and becomes increasingly negative for months, coinciding with a steady drop in Bitcoin’s price. During the Bitcoin rally to USD 20,000 MACD was in positive territory for over a year, and during the 2018 bear market, MACD was in negative territory for over half a year.
This could be a major sign that a big Bitcoin rally is starting. Already ,Bitcoin’s price has increased from USD 5,800 in mid-August to USD 7,400 as of this writing on 4 September. This is a USD 1,600 increase or 28%. If MACD is accurate, then could be the beginning of a major rally that will last many months.
MACD was developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is essentially a filtered derivative of Bitcoin’s price or the velocity of price movement. In trading, when this crosses from negative to positive, it is called a bullish crossover and is considered a good time to buy. Generally when a bullish crossover occurs, price accelerates upwards.
So where does Bitcoin’s price go from here? According to a long-term Fibonacci retracement, the next resistance level is USD 9,000. Using MACD in combination with the Fibonacci retracement, it can be expected that Bitcoin’s price will rise to USD 9,000, getting stuck below this level for some time before continuing upwards.
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