Happy new year! I believe we have productivity and approximation, and now let’s start the weekly analysis for Bitcoin!
Weekly candle closed at $3977. The previous weekly candle is much smaller in size and volumes.
During this week sellers stopped growth from December 15 and tried to change the local trend.
The start by sellers was very good. They tested $3700 almost without problems. If the buyers did not do anything in return there would be a high probability to update the minimum and stop at a price of $3040. In this case, the growth on December 15 meant correction of the entire fall which began on November 18. With such a weak correction, the minimum target for the continuation of the fall is at the range of $3,000.
However, there are several facts that allow me not to choose this scenario as the main one:
1) After sellers’ attempts to fix below the price zone of $3750-3850, buyers aggressively turned this price zone back and now the price is traded over this zone:
2) After the buyers returned the price above $3750-3850, the fall has ceased to be aggressive and compared with growth, this fall more resembles correction. If we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, it is clear that during this fall buyers are increasing their positions:
3) If you look at the volumes on which the growth began and compare them with candles, it becomes clear that the growth prospect is considerably larger than the price range of $4,300-4,400. On November 27, volumes were large and buyers were aggressively bought. However, the sellers were strong and did not allow such a great rollback:
So for the moment, I have two scenarios.
The first scenario will work if buyers keep a price zone of $3750-3850. Then I expect a minimum growth of $ 4,800 with a final target of $5,400.
The second scenario is a continuation of the fall to 3660 with a maximum target of 3400. After, I will expect growth for approximately the same purposes as in the first version.
On wave analysis, I understand the growth of December 15 as the beginning of the fall correction which began on November 17th. At the price of $4370, the first correctional wave A was finished. After the correction of this wave, I am expecting a wave C, which at the price of $4800 will be equal to the wave A and at the price of 5400 $ will be equal to 1.618 * A:
Therefore, this week critical point is the price zone of $3750-3850. However, according to the current facts in two scenarios, I expect growth with a maximum target of $5,400.
Also, today the monthly candle is closed where we see a large shadow and large volumes. For me it is a sign that the chances of at least a local rollback are very large:
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He is studying and analyzing the crypto market for about 2 years.
Charts:TradingView |Image: Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash