It is time to assess the current situation with Bitcoin. Has the situation changed at least a little? In the previous analysis, buyers consolidated below the price of $5,300 in order to break through this important level. Each time the price reaches the mark of $5,300, a local turn is started:
This time, buyers were able to break through $5,300, but on a 4-hour timeframe, we see that sellers immediately responded to such a bold buyer’s move. At the moment, sellers were able to break through the growth channel, in which the price was moving from 2 April. If the sellers do not continue the active attack, we expect a price return up to $5,300. It will be a peculiar test of the level and the low trend line of the channel. If this growth appears without volumes, then it will be a good signal that the fall is just beginning.
The mood of buyers ceases to be as positive as it was the beginning of the month. Marginal positions of buyers are traded in the triangle:
Sellers have recovered from the previous panic closure of their positions and are still uncertain in increasing their positions. However, the price coming out of the growth channel is just a sign of weakness, but we know how the price by inertia can grow without volumes.
Therefore, the confidence of sellers can instill or halt the continuation of the fall, or display a sluggish test of $5,300 by buyers.
On wave analysis, we see that buyers could not break through the 1.618 level of the Fibonacci:
Also, we clearly see that there is a global channel of the price movement from which buyers could not get out and the middle of this channel is in the price of $4,650-4,700.
Therefore, in the near future, we expect a maximum growth up to $5,300, after which the fall will continue. Otherwise, sellers will not allow such a deep test and the fall will accelerate. This scenario is quite real, because buyers are not so impulsive to buy:
Summarizing the above, we continue to think that growth since December 2018 was a correction which is now in the final stage. Have a good end of the week and see you on Sunday.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News