Hello, friends! It’s time to sum up the results of the week, which ends interesting and hot. Starting from 6 May, buyers even on small volumes, but with constant pressure tried to break through the price zone of USD 6200-6300. At the end of the week, because of the lack of resistance from sellers, this price zone was broken and during the weekend Bitcoin rose by 16% and the volumes have doubled. However, if we compare the current volumes with those that were consolidated since August 2018, then we do not see any significant changes. In our opinion, the market is weak and such volumes are not sufficient for a new, confident and global wave of growth.
The surprise was how easy buyers in one day broke the price zone of USD 6300-6600. In the past, in this price zone, the digital currency traded for more than 3 months. However, breaking through does not mean holding back. Now the price has stopped at the trendline, which in August 2018 was a good support for buyers:
As we see in the weekly timeframe, the present volumes look very uncertain with those that were before the strong fall in November 2018. However, if buyers manage to keep USD 6300-6600 we do not see problems for continuation of the growth.
In two days the situation with the marginal positions of buyers changed dramatically:
Increasing marginal positions of sellers during the month on the growth of Bitcoin led to the fact that sellers began to record loss-making positions either in stop-loss or manually through a permanent stay at a loss position:
The index of fear/greed is on the highest mark for the entire last year – 76:
In the wave analysis, we keep to the scenario that was written in the previous analysis. In our opinion, the 3rd wave of growth, which began in December 2018, is now complete:
We now expect a price stop at the price zone of USD 6300-6600 and a 3rd correction wave that began in March 2019. Depending on what correction we will be able to more accurately predict the goal of the new wave of growth. If we analyze the prolonged fall from January 2018, then buyers have corrected this fall by 23.6%:
Beginning in February 2019, buyers are constantly accelerating their growth by increasing the growth angle, but without increasing their volumes. This often occurs before the culmination of growth, after which there is a turning. Therefore, we do not recommend buying now and wait for at least confirmation of the strength of buyers in the price zone of USD 6300-6600. It is highly probable that next week will be consolidated at current price levels, so we have a lot of patience and good spirits and we expect critical points from which to make a decision.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Charts Courtesy: TradingView