After most of the buyers had high hopes that the price would break through the trend line which is the basis of the “Inverted head and shoulders”, sellers were able to stop growth and break this local trend by breaking the trend line that buyers were trying to protect since December 27.
The local buyers trend was quite weak. It can be seen in comparison with the previous growth since December 17. The aggressiveness of candles and volumes since December 17 were much larger than the growth since December 27. Also, examine how difficult it was for buyers to fix above the price zone USD 3,980-4,050 and how easily sellers lowered the price:
Though, during such a weak trend, buyers actively increased their marginal positions which caused a sharp fall:
Another confirmation of the fact that the main force of the fall was due to a sharp closure of the buyers’ position can be found by analyzing the falling volumes. The chart clearly shows that a strong fall in large volumes occurred in the range where before the buyers were actively gaining ground. After the test and break through the USD 3,700 aggression disappeared:
Sellers have increased their positions during this fall but in comparison with the fact that before the sellers actively closed their positions, this increase in positions has a local character and does not affect the overall picture:
To summarize, it turns out that buyers believe in growth but at the moment are not strong enough to continue growth and are too afraid and not ready to keep the price in the range of USD 3,980-4050. Sellers have ceased to be active and most of them do not believe in a continuation of the decline at the moment. This mood of the market participants will leave us in consolidation until the moment when sellers will not find solid support to continue growth, which began on 17 December 2018.
The mood of market participants also confirms a weekly candle that closed at a price of USD 3,591. The candle looks big but its volume is almost identical to that of the neighbor candle:
Since November 17, weekly volumes begin to decrease and the market is preparing to continue growth with the ultimate goal of USD 5,400. At the moment, the price is moving in the falling channel which is more like a correction before a new growth:
For us, this is the main global scenario. To confirm this scenario, buyers need to break through the upper trend line and a price zone of USD 3,980-4,050. On a wave analysis, the critical point passes in the price of USD 4,025. However, the price did not reach USD 3,500-3,520 where the wave X = wave Y:
Therefore, the local scenarios are:
1) Despite the beautiful green candle, price will continue to fall within the channel and after testing USD 3,500-3,520 will begin to rise to the critical price zone of USD 3,980-4,050:
2) Buyers will not allow the updating of the local minimum and will continue to push for USD 3,980-4,050.
In any case, we expect a continuation of the price increase and so far, we are not considering an alternative scenario of punching USD 3,500 and continuation of the fall, because we do not see neither the mood of the sellers nor the volumes necessary for this.
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