After the previous analysis, the price zone test of $5,200-5,300 stopped in consolidation. Buyers are trying to build a movement that is limited to the orange triangle. At the moment, the price is clearly moving under the upper trend line. If you analyze the volume of trading, then they do not change in the direction of increase and growth is actually carried out because of the lack of resistance from the side of the sellers.
Yesterday’s daytime candle showed that there is liquidity in the price zone of $5,200-5,300. Pay attention to two candles and their volumes (16 and 17 April and). Almost at the same volumes, the size and shape of the candles are quite different. This allows us to assume that, without increasing of volumes from the part of buyers, the price zone of $5,200-5,300 should be kept and trade in the triangle should continue.
Buyers increase their marginal positions, on the chart, so far, it does not pass into a trend and more like consolidation:
Sellers also are increasing their positions, but at the moment, it does not look confident. Everyone was waiting in anticipation.
If we analyze the current triangle, then it is likely that the price will continue to be traded there until the end of the week. Now, practically only three waves have been formed (a, b, c):
Until we see an increase in volume from buyers, we regard the current price movement in the triangle as a correction after the fall from 10 April. As you can see, buyers corrected the previous fall by more than 61.8% and the maximum possible growth in this scenario is $5,370:
Given this, we expect a minimum fall to $5,000-5,050. In this case, the wave Y = 0.618 * W:
An alternative scenario is the breakdown and fixing over the price zone of $5,200-5,300 and the test of the top of the blue trend line of the channel in which the price moves from December 2018:
Meanwhile, we can only entertain the small volume market, waiting for clear signals.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News