Although the price has been moving and is not stagnant, the current market remains invariably weak and uninteresting. We continue to observe continuous consolidation after a slight growth or fall. After a sharp fall on 24 February, the price stopped again and during the week traded in the range of $3,820–4,000. The volumes are increased for a short period of time after which continues a consolidation without volumes. If we analyze the daily timeframe, then we do not see any changes that would indicate the chance of breaking the current consolidation upwards:
Pay attention to the volumes which were at the first attempt of buyers to exit the consolidation and compare them with the current volumes. At the moment, buyers do not have the strength and desire to break the consolidation up, and we think that from 24 February, sellers began their local attack. The fact that buyers at the current stop of the price do not try to take the initiative in their hands, suggests that the current consolidation is just a stop before the continuation of the fall within the consolidation. If we analyze the hourly timeframe, then we can see that on 28 February, buyers tried to continue to grow and break through $4,000. However, their attack ended with a large pin, and the next candle closed the attempt of buyers on the raised volume:
Now, the current growth is by inertia without volumes and perfectly shows the weakness of buyers at the moment.
If we talk about the mood of buyers, then you see that their marginal positions are decreased:
Sellers also closed their positions. No one wants to risk and remain in a loss-making situation, when consolidation is going to take some distance. And we know that it always happens unexpectedly, sharply and emotionally:
According to the wave analysis, after the first wave of the fall from 24 February, a correction wave is now formed. The price is traded between two levels of Fibonacci:
We expect another fall wave with the first target of $3,660 and with the ultimate target of $3,500. If, in this fall, we do not see an abnormal increase in volume, then there will be a high probability of continuing consolidation and rebound from $3,500. But this will be a completely different story.
If you look at the month’s timeframe, it’s clear that the February candle covered the January candle and in March we should see at least an attempt to grow and breakthrough of $4,300. However, if the volumes are the same as in January or February, we will continue to observe the interesting narrow range consolidations.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
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