Starting from 18 March, buyers have been trying to build a local trend movement, with a clear line of support. However, if we remember the previous analysis, now the price moves in consolidation, with limits of $4,040 being the lower limit and $4,120 the upper limit. At the moment, buyers are able to break the upper limit of consolidation relatively in the increased volumes. However, this breakthrough is not yet sure. At the hourly timeframe, there is still a struggle for the upper limit of consolidation:
On a daily timeframe, growth from 18 March does not look bright and confident either in terms of size or character of candles. Buyers again are trying to test the upper trend line of the triangle:
Therefore, we continue to expect a local fall in the price at least to the lower limit of consolidation at $4,040. However, the critical price zone for buyers is $3,900–3,950. In addition to the fact that a good volume was formed in this price zone after the 18-day consolidation on 25 February, the lower trend line of the triangle, which buyers protect from December 2018, passes through this price zone:
If buyers do not keep this price zone then the first stop of the price at a price of $3,660.
If we analyze the mood of market participants, then buyers feel confident and increase their marginal positions:
Also, the confidence of buyers confirms the index of fear and greed, which is now at a rather high rate:
The only thing that impedes buyers in confident growth is volume, which at the moment is not enough.
Sellers became less confident and after yesterday’s growth of the coin, less than 1% began actively closing their margin positions:
According to the wave analysis, the last wave of the triangle “e” is now formed. Buyers have the last chance to change the situation now. To do this, they must complete their current attack with success. But every subsequent attempt by buyers is actually weaker:
If we analyze in detail the wave e, which consists of three waves, then we see that the wave a = c at the price of $4,150. The maximum possible length of the wave c is at the price of $4,300. But now, buyers stop growing and do not have the strength to move higher:
In concluding our analysis, we want to distinguish two critical points. If buyers do not keep the price range from $3,900–3,950, then the next global support for buyers is $3,500. After it, sellers will have a great chance to test $2,650.
However, if buyers find the strength to break the triangle up and fix above the price zone of $4,200–4,300, we will wait for a green positive period. However, looking at the current facts, we have little faith in the possibility of implementing the second scenario.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News