The hopes of buyers for strong and promising growth which appeared two days ago after the flawed breakdown of the price zone of USD 3,560-3,580 slowly begin to fade. After a small increase in the volume of purchases, the market again began to move into a calm phase in which the price of small volumes falls and is now again near the same zone:
In last week’s analysis, we forecast that a high probability in the market consolidation would continue and the first target from which the price may be locally rolled over is USD 3,690 (middle of the consolidation channel), and the ultimate goal is USD 3,770-38,00 (upper limit of the consolidation channel).
However, buyers could not even touch the price of USD 3,690. Sellers stopped buyers in a narrow price zone of USD 3,640-3,650. Only as buyers tried to break through and fix above this price zone, sellers immediately returned the range:
On a larger time frame, we did not see an increase in the power of the buyers. The price is moving in the falling channel and the buyers could not break it:
The mood of buyers is also clearly visible in the margin positions chart. Buyers continue to close them and do not believe in the continuation of growth:
The price is consolidated over the zone of USD 3,560-3,580 and this is a critical point for buyers. If sellers can break through this price zone then we expect our target, which we set at the beginning of the week, namely the test of USD 3,360. At the moment, there have not yet been attempts to break through this level and we do not see an increase in volumes to continue the fall. However, this can still happen suddenly. If sellers fail to break through this price zone, then the consolidation will continue and the first target of buyers will be USD 3,690 and the final target will be USD 3,770-3,800.
After continuous closing of margin positions, sellers are trying to change this situation but so far it looks uncertain:
In the wave analysis, there are two variants of the event development. There is a correction after the fall since 20 December 2018. If sellers cannot break through the price zone of USD 3,560-3580, then we expect another wave of growth after which the fall should continue with a maximum target of USD 3,800:
Otherwise, the correction after the fall has ended and now begins a new wave of the fall, which should end in the price zone of USD 3,260-3,360:
Therefore, we will closely monitor the price range of USD 3,560-3,580 to understand which scenario will work. However, both scenarios have the ultimate target the price range of USD 3,260-3,360, after which we expect the growth to continue with the first target of USD 4,400 and the ultimate one of USD 5,200.
This is a global perspective which will work if buyers can keep a price range of USD 3,260-3,360. Meanwhile, we stand still and prepare for steady falls. Therefore, stay patient and keep a deposit handy for large price movements.
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