Hello to all the crypto traders and investors! We welcome you with another summary of the week that just ended and a forecast for the week ahead. Unfortunately, we are not sure that we can share positive news.
During the week, price traded in a narrow corridor of $4,040–4,120.
The only increase this week was noticed on 21 March. This volume was triggered by an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to fix over $4,120:
Buyers were able to break through the consolidation zone but did it in uncertain fashion. Typically, after breaking through such consolidations, the price confidently flies up and after rollback on small volumes, continues to grow. In our case, the price went only slightly beyond consolidation and unsuccessfully stopped, after which buyers could not keep the level that was broken. Sellers, with the help of one candle on a 4-hour timeframe, could lower the price even below the consolidation limits.
After a sharp fall, buyers do not show a desire to buy and behave very passively.
Also, pay attention to the situation on a three-hour timeframe:
If you compare the size of red and green candles and match them with their volumes, it becomes clear that buyers need much more effort to grow than sellers.
If we analyze the marginal buyer positions, they increased during the week. Buyers believed in growth and even on 21 March, when the price fell sharply, buyers increased their positions. Only since 23 March did buyers begin to doubt and decrease their positions:
Sellers during the growth of prices closed their positions. But note that every next day’s candle is less than the previous one:
If we analyze the daily timeframe, then the impression is that the fall only begins and the two previous days were the usual correction before the new impulse down:
The index of fear and greed for two days fell by 10 points. Therefore, if we analyze the mood of the market participants in general, then we see that buyers have ceased to believe in the continuation of growth and now we enter a small calm before the storm.
If we consider the wave analysis, then we see that this week, buyers have completely formed the wave “e”, which could not break the triangle up. Therefore, we believe that the correction after the fall in November 2018 is completed and soon a new stage of the fall with a first stop of $3,650 should begin. At this price, located liquidity and the bottom trend line will also pass through. From this price, consolidation can continue in the wider triangle. However, globally, in any case, we think that the fall of Bitcoin will continue to $2,650. The only question is whether this will happen sharply, or after consolidation is continued in the wider triangle:
At this time, we are not considering an alternative scenario because of the total absence of signals for growth. However, if buyers are unexpectedly able to break through and fix a stage above the price zone of $4,200–4,300, we will review our opinion.
Meanwhile, we expect the continuation of the fall next week and the $3,650 test.
We wish you a profitable week and a great mood, despite forecasts!
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News