After a sharp fall of the price from 24 February, buyers no longer have the enthusiasm that they displayed earlier about the growth of this coin. Now, their growth attempts are more like a correction. The price stopped in the price zone of $3,840-3,930 and we do not see a strong chance of turnaround from this zone. If we analyze two red candles with the largest volumes, it becomes clear that the current price zone is important:
The second candle has a much smaller size but a fairly large volume. In our opinion, this means that in this price zone, sellers have met with limit orders of buyers who have suspended the fall. It was a good sign for buyers to carry out a counterattack. However, buyers have decided not to use this chance and now we have a non-initiative weak growth, which is more like a correction before continuation of the fall.
If you look at the global timeframe, now the price is in the middle of the consolidation, which began in December 2018:
On a larger timeframe, there is also no hint of growth continuation.
The marginal buyer positions stopped change actively. It confirms the decrease in the activity of buyers and explains the non-initiative growth at the moment:
Globally, sellers are reducing their positions because they do not believe in the continuation of the fall. However, if we look globally on the chart of margin positions of sellers, then we see that they are now at a critical point from which the turnaround has always started (beginning from May 2018):
According to the wave analysis, if buyers continue such a movement without volumes, then the maximum target of such growth in the range of $4,000-4,050:
Also, there is good liquidity, as this price zone has been consolidating throughout the week. After testing this price zone, we expect a continuation of the fall to $3,500-3,550 and at this point, we will analyze the strength of market participants and the probability of a price rebound.
Therefore, while the price continues to drift between two important price zones, it is $3,500-3,550 at the bottom and $4,200-4,300 at the top. And in this 20% range, the price will move until we see confident volumes and the mood of market participants do not have too much effect on the market. Meanwhile, the situation may change in one day. A few days ago, the fear/greed rate was 69:
Today, it moves from 40. During such a rapid change of the mood lies good opportunities for short-term trade. But it is too early to talk about global targets.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
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