After a 10-day consolidation in the range of $4,040–4,160, sellers were able to satisfy all buyer demand and continued to fall to the first trend line of the triangle. Sellers were able to break $3,988 and are currently keeping this level successfully. If we analyze the chart from 20 February, then the price of $3,988 was a real problem for buyers:
Pay attention to how the volumes look like in those cases when the price reached this level. At the moment, buyers are trying to change the situation, but it would be nice to see in addition to trying more volumes.
At 4-hour timeframe we see that buyers were able to slow down the fall and sellers have made it possible to make a correction:
However, buyers do not show us a strong potential growth and we expect the continuation of the fall and breakdown of the trend line of the triangle down.
On an hourly timeframe, we clearly see a weak growth channel that more closely resembles consolidation at an angle. Since this consolidation does not see an increase in volumes, this is confirmed by the fact that the current growth attempt is just a stop before the continuation of the fall:
Marginal buyers positions do not increase with force as they increased since 17 March:
Sellers also close their positions. The market is dominated by the lack of volumes on both sides:
It is possible to understand sellers. The longer the fall trend, the more likely its correction or alteration. Moreover, the price is now rising with uncertainty and without volumes. However, we think that after the breakdown of the trend line of the triangle, the situation will become clear to buyers and sellers.
On the wave analysis, we see the completion of the fall wave, which consisted of three smaller waves:
At the moment, sellers corrected this fall wave by 23.6%. If sellers can not keep the price of $3,988 then the next price zone, from which there is a high probability of a continuation of the fall will be $4,020–4,040. After that, in our opinion, wave Y will begin, the targets of which are $3,830 and $3,700.
This is our main scenario of price movement. On the alternative scenario, we will be able to talk in the next analysis, if buyers give rise to it in the form of an increase in volumes. Meanwhile, we continue to wait for bearish days.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News